ACI Risk Indicator-to-Default Proxy

Historical 12-month impairment rates by risk band

Dataset: 70 entities (38 failure events, 2020–2025)

Band	n	Impaired	Rate
LOW RISK	18	1	5.6%
MEDIUM RISK	14	3	21.4%
ELEVATED	4	0	0.0%
Zero failures observed in this band across the 2020–2025 dataset. This reflects dataset composition, not a safety guarantee. Instruments in this band carry material structural risk.
HIGH RISK	34	34	100.0%

Score ranges: LOW = 80–100 | MEDIUM = 60–79 | ELEVATED = 40–59 | HIGH = 0–39

DISCLAIMER

Historical reference only. Sample sizes are small. Not a formal probability of default model. Rates must always be displayed alongside their n values.

Programmatic access: /api/methodology/default-proxy